2010년 11월 15일 월요일

Yuan Revaluation, another Plaza Agreement?

G20 Summit, Last Thurs/Friday was hot on Coex. The subjects handled can be abstracted into a 'battle' between the developed and developing countries. More specifically between the G2, US and China. The main topics were the currency rate and regulating the trade surplus/deficit. namely, US argued that the trade surplus/deficit should be controlled in the +-4% range. Trade surplus/deficit regulation was postponed to the next summit(China reached 20% years agos and still ranges around 9%), but the currency rate revaluation is still hot.

To be honest, a country offering another to adjust currency rate is absolutely outrageous. Currency exchange rate directly affects the book value of products and therefore has huge impact on the gross profit of the trade. Recall the subprime mortagage crisis two years ago and the suffer of the countries(citizens too, of course) due to the currency rate was very obvious. Korea and Asian countries that suffered IMF crisis 1998, faced amazingly painful economic depression due to the dropping currency exchange rate. There are stories of the Korean diplomats who had to carry dollar bills in the pockets of their coats to Bank of Korea(they could take large bills from a country to Korea, because they were diplomats and therefore extraterritoriality).

Currency rate directly affects a country's well-being as a whole. Japan used to rule the world economy in the 80s and threatened US's #1 place in the economy. Japanese flourishing funds started buy American soil including the Rockepeller center. However, when Plaza Agreement took effect and the value of Yen was appreciated to a double value, everything changed. Export of Japanese goods started to drop harshly and Japanese companies had to resell American real estates at a less than half the value they bought due to the changed exchange rate and the lack of fund in the Japanese homeland.
Afterwards, Japan started an amazingly long era of recession. (Still recovering)

America is asking China to repeat what Japan did decades ago. (This time, China bought American bond instead of the real estates) Really, even the stupid know that the economy is important(Bill Clinton said this).

The majority of the countries do not agree on a currency revaluation, not to mention believing that it is fair.

Former assistant secretary of Ministry of Finance and Economy of Korean government who I am currently taking a course of, mentioned that this is only a power game. In the cold war era, it was military, now it has changed to the economy.

The fact that America can suggest this kind of subject show what a super power that US has in the 21st century. Such that no countries in the prior history ever had. Nevertheless, I cannot stop thinking that US's movement was very naive and somewhat desperate.

댓글 3개:

  1. You had some really good points. In general, although I am an American, I think that the U.S. is usally trying to flaunt its power too much. And, it is always sticking its nose into other people's business, and the economy is no exception.

    답글삭제
  2. 작성자가 댓글을 삭제했습니다.

    답글삭제
  3. oh, it's really cool to have some honest point of a view.
    personally, i believe in Chris Hughes (of Facebook) who built mybarackobama.com to help democrats win the election.
    pretty-faced boy who majored literature and history made an amazing difference

    답글삭제